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September 13th, 2015 
Carl Williams 
A crash is probably imminent as at no time in history have we had so many platforms vying for attention. Some will obviously survive on a “skin of their teeth” profit margin or as a hobbyist platform. Others will simply die as they are aiming for actual commercial success which includes paying staff, marketing firms and more.
Besides a gluttony of platforms to support, there are other similarities with the past that are repeating themselves today. The teams making the games for most of these platforms are smaller, usually less than five people. Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo do offer access to their hardware for indie developers but these do not include any kind of physical release (digital only).
Also, another similarity we see today when looking back at history is there is really no quality control process. Anyone that can download a dev kit can start making games. For many a quality control process is tantamount to censorship. For me, it is at least a stop gap between just any piece of crap getting released to the unknowing public that just wanted something decent to play. Nintendo introduced this process with their NES when they effectively relaunched the console market in the mid 80’s.
At some point gamers are going to get tired of all of the crap games out there and simply leave gaming again. It has happened once before, many would argue it happens every day but those people are quickly replaced with new fans. What we are seeing is a transition in the fan base thanks to the cheapness of mobile gaming. This could be what the next videogame crash is going to be based on.
Angry Birds is a buck, or free with ads, on many mobile platforms. A few more on TV systems like Roku 3. On Wii Angry Birds is $30+. Sure, the Wii version is a physical release and those boxes/manuals/distribution services aren’t free, that is still quite a jump in price. Especially considering most people standing there looking at the physical release are probably in possession of a cell phone that will play those same games for about a buck each (are “exclusive” levels worth the 3,000+% price increase?).
For other people reading this, you are probably calling foul on comparing mobile games that cost, usually less than $5, to games sold in stores that cost $25+. It is a fair based solely on the fact that for every $1 spent on a mobile version of say, Angry Birds, is a buck that cannot be spent on the Wii, 3DS or Wii U version of that same game. Just like back in the 80’s there will be platforms that are able to sell their games for less than their competition. It doesn’t mean they will win, it just means they sap that little bit of money out of the market before someone else gets it.
With nearly 30 platforms vying for your money some are destined to fail. Even with over $8 million in funding couldn’t keep the Ouya from being a flop when it came to gamers supporting it. Pick your platform and show support for it if you want to see it stay afloat in the coming years. The odds are against it, no matter which platform you pick- just some have less of an uphill battle than others.
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I have to disagree with you, with many of these platforms beign digital only, the overstock of the marketplace won’t come anywhere close to what happened in ’83. Now the glutt of microconsoles on the other hand is a very realistic possibility, due to the ammount of companies competing. However because the games beign sold are digital only, even if they sell the microconsoles at a loss they’ll still come out on top. As far as quality control goes, that is an issue I feel most applies to Android and Steam, but is at the end of the day, something that is addressable.
Well said. The problem with this glut of platforms, digital only/physical/combination of both, is they are still vying for the same finite amount of money gamers have to spend.
If enough crappy games are released, gamers will go elsewhere for entertainment.
Hey Carl, you’ve really padded your list of modern platforms. Let’s be a little more realistic. There are many legacy platforms on your list that aren’t receiving new games (ps3, vita, 360) and some that aren’t going to happen (retroVGS LOL). These are where new games are being made, where one could reasonably spend some money.
Android
Apple iOS
Nintendo 3DS
Nintendo Wii U
Playstation 4
Xbox One
Let’s not forget that the modern market is much bigger, prices are lower, and quality is generally higher. Combine that with the manufacturing efficiencies of modern optical media (and of course digital downloads) and it’s pretty clear that we won’t see a 1984-style “crash” anytime soon, if ever again.
Sure, I “padded” the modern systems, those are still consoles (well, not the RETRO VGS, which at the time of the writing was “coming”) that command shelf space at some of the most popular stores for game sales such as Gamestop and Wal-Mart. Therefore they have to be considered “modern” as people are still buying them, even if companies are not supporting them anymore.
Sure, the modern market is bigger and more varied. That is true. It also makes it tougher for the good stuff to get to the top. Honestly, how many games are getting bought via digital download that are not AAA releases? Or how many non Call of Duty, GTA, God of War, etc titles are being bought at places like Wal-Mart. A lot of games just sit there and don’t get bought. This is evident with the numerous studio closings, publishers leaving certain markets even though they hold the rights to some extremely cherished IP’s (Konami for example).
How many gamers are going to be “happy” with a Pachinko Castlevania rather than a 2D side scrolling action fest? What kind of outcry is going to happen when we see a similar outing of Metal Gear Solid? Sure, this is a case of Konami going where the money is but when everything is IAP enabled crap puzzle games that are just graphic swaps of other games, how many gamers are going to continue supporting it?
Not many, I think. The second gaming crash will obviously be different than the first, it is just gaming nature. The market today is completely different than it was 30+ years ago, so will this looming crash be different.
What does this even mean? It makes zero sense.
“At some point gamers are going to get tired of all of the crap games out there and simply leave gaming again.”
Um, what? Wouldn’t they just be more selective and only play goood games? Quantity of choices has nothing to do with quality at the top. 99% of everything is crap, and it has always been that way.
Remember the original crash? There were still good games being released around Pac-Man and E.T. on the Atari 2600, two of the scapegoats that people point at as causing this event. Those good games didn’t stop the crash from happening as gamers got bored with all of the crap that was overshadowing the good.
We are very much in a similar situation but probably slightly different nowadays. There is a ton of “me-too” games (count the number of Match 3 games that simply swap graphics and ask for money at nearly every turn) or the “strategy” titles like Game of War (which are really just menu clicking games) that also sap the pocketbook.
Gamers are going to get tired of the crap (i.e., no real gameplay) and constant pushing of in app purchases.
If players would just play the best games then why are there so many crap titles clogging the top 10 on most of the app stores? It is increasingly tough for a good game to get exposure and purchases from gamers due to the myriad of crap titles that clog the news streams across the board.